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UGA increased the current year’s crop forecast to almost 70 mmt of grains and oilseeds

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Ukrainian producers, despite the difficult conditions of wartime, mined fields and hostilities due to russia’s aggressive war, continue to fight courageously for the harvest so that Ukraine has enough grain and can export part of the harvest to the world market. This year, Ukraine could produce 69.4 mmt of grain and oilseeds crops from the seeded area of about 19.1 million hectares. (the previous harvest forecast was 66.5 mmt). At the same time, export from Ukraine can reach 31.5 mmt, subject to a significant increase in the capacity of crossings at the borders of Ukraine. In the conditions of the current border transition capacities, Ukraine can count on a volume export of about 25-30 mmt in the 2022/2023 marketing year. In addition, ending stocks from the 2021/2022 marketing year amounted to about 25.9 mmt. According to optimistic forecasts, ending stocks this season may increase to 36.6 mmt, or according to pessimistic forecasts, to about 48 mmt.

This year’s wheat crop in Ukraine is expected at 20.8 mmt, although it is significantly lower than last year (33 mmt),  this volume is three times larger than Ukraine consumes wheat per year. At the same time, the ending stocks of wheat from the past harvest amount to more than 10 mmt. The export of wheat in 2022/2023 MY, taking into account the large ending stocks, may amount to about 10 mmt.

The barley crop forecast remained unchanged – 6.6 mmt (in 2021 – 10.1 mmt), and exports in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at 2 mmt. The corn crop in the new season can be expected at the level of 27.3 mmt (last year 37.6 mmt), while export can amount to about 10 mmt.

The sunflower crop can be expected at the level of 9 mmt (in 2021 – 16.9 mmt), and export at the level of 6 mmt, taking into account the ending stocks from last season at the level of 5.8 mmt. The sunflower seeds crush volume can reach 7 mmt (10 mmt last season). The increase in sunflower seed export is due toexport logistical problems.

The rapeseed (canola) crop is forecast at the level of 1.65 mmt (2.9 mmt in 2021), while 2022/2023 MY export is expected at the level of 1.45 mmt. The soybean crop is expected at the level of 2.2 mmt (in 2021 – 3.5 mmt), and exports in 2022/2023 MR can be expected at the level of 1.8 mmt.

In general, the export of grain and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level, if Ukraine, in the conditions of the blockade of the Black Sea ports, can double the border transition capacities of other logistics routes, in particular, railway crossings on the borders with EU countries. However, the unblocking of the Black Sea ports will greatly simplify logistics and the cost of transporting grain for export, and producers will be able to get a higher price for the grown crop in accordance with the price on the world market. Unlocking Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way quickly and effectively restore Ukrainian grain exports to countries that desperately need it. The lack, as well as high cost of food, can cause, according to the UN, famine in many poor countries of the world, mass protests and riots, and as a result mass migration of people from African and Middle Eastern countries to the EU.

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