The Russian Grain Trap: How Russia is Undermining Political Stability in Africa

KSE Agrocenter, together with the Free University of Berlin, published a study on the impact of Russian wheat exports on hunger, democracy, and political stability in sub-Saharan Africa over the past 20 years.

Key findings of the study:

High dependence of local countries on Russian wheat imports is a significant predictor of a decrease in the political stability index reflected in social upheavals and military conflicts.
Destabilization of political regimes due to Russian grain supplies intensified after 2014 against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the aggravation of relations between Russia and the West, and the Kremlin’s political expansion in the countries of the Global South.
The share of Russian wheat in imports is weakly correlated with the democracy index, which indicates Russia’s intentions to strengthen its influence over both its authoritarian allies and relatively democratic countries.
African countries’ dependence on Russian grain led to increased hunger after the start of a full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022. This contributed to the strengthening of these countries’ political dependence on the Kremlin. In addition, Russia’s humanitarian supplies to a number of countries influenced their votes in the UN General Assembly on resolutions condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Humanitarian supplies of Ukrainian grain have become a relatively new phenomenon of “grain diplomacy” that can reduce the Russian geopolitical influence in the region.

Link to the full study: https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/52205