Ukraine will enter the new season with extremely large grain residues – 13 mln tons

In Ukraine, according to the results of the MY 2025/26, the transitional grain balances will increase from 4 million tons to almost 13 million tons due to the incomplete realization of the export potential due to the introduction of quotas in the EU and increased competition in the markets of Africa and Asia, said Maksym Kharchenko, an analyst at the UkrAgroConsult consulting agency.

“The main card that will be played this season is the huge transitional stocks that we will have. Ukraine was unable to fully realize its export potential (to supply the grain crop to foreign markets – IF-U). The transitional stocks will actually increase from 4 million tons to almost 13 million tons of grain. Mostly, these will be corn and wheat, but barley and even peas will also have higher-than-expected stocks,” he said during the BLACK SEA GRAIN. KYIV – 2026. on Wednesday.

The analyst noted that the pace of wheat shipments to foreign markets in the MY 2025/26 is significantly inferior to last year’s and average multi-year indicators. The main reason was the restriction of access to the European Union market due to the introduced quotas: this forced Ukrainian traders to urgently look for other sales channels and reorient the geography of exports. As a result, Ukraine was forced to compete intensively with other players in the Black Sea region in the difficult markets of North Africa and the Middle East.

The infographics presented during the presentation show that corn exports in the 2025/26 season also started much weaker than the previous year’s level. Closer to January, the pace of shipments leveled off somewhat, but the overall amplitude of exports still did not reach the peak values ​​of previous years. The situation with wheat turned out to be even more complicated: its sales volumes for almost the entire season remained below last year’s figures. At the same time, a particularly noticeable decline was observed in the period from September to January 2025.

Kharchenko added that the market dynamics were also affected by weather conditions during the harvest, which delayed the start of corn exports. At the same time, pressure from competitors from the USA and Brazil increased on the traditional grain markets for Ukraine (EU and Turkey).

“Here, both in the medium and long term, the situation remains quite difficult and it is quite likely that Ukraine will not be able to fully realize its export potential in the MY 2025/26,” the expert emphasized.

According to UkrAgroConsult forecasts, the domestic agricultural sector will enter the new harvesting season with an extremely large volume of unsold grain, which will create additional pressure on domestic prices and warehouse logistics.

https://ukragroconsult.com