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UGA Forecast for 2024 Crop – 76.1 MMT of Grains and Oilseeds

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The Ukrainian Grain Association estimates the potential harvest for 2024 at 76.1 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds. In 2023, the UGA estimates the harvest at 82.6 MMT of grains and oilseeds. The current forecast is based on the average weather conditions of the last 5 years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in the spring and summer may lead to adjustments.  The potential decline in the new season’s harvest will be caused by a reduction in the area under crops, mainly cereals, due to unfavorable global price conditions and relatively expensive export logistics.

Under such conditions, exports in the new 2024/2025 season could be around 43.7 MMT. According to the UGA, exports of grains and oilseeds in the current season may reach 53.1 MMT of grains and oilseeds, provided that the Ukrainian sea corridor and the Danube route operate smoothly.

The UGA forecasts the wheat crop in 2024 at 20 MMT (in 2023 – 22 MMT). Potential wheat exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach about 13 million tonnes, considering the carry-over stocks of 2.4 MMT at the beginning of the season.

According to the UGA, the 2024 barley harvest could reach 4.6 MMT (5.8 million tonnes in 2023), while potential exports in 2024/2025 MY are expected to be around 2 MMT (in the current season, barley exports forecast is at 2.5 MMT).

Expectations for the corn crop in the new season are deteriorating due to a possible reduction in the area planted to maize. Farmers are suffering losses due to too low purchase prices for the crop, driven by a decline in world prices. As a result, the UGA estimates the corn crop in 2024 at 26.3 million tonnes, 3 million tonnes less than last year’s 29.6 MMT. At the same time, potential exports could reach around 20.5 MMT (exports in the current season is expected to reach 26 million tonnes).

The 2024 sunflower crop is expected to be 13.7 MMT (in 2023 – 14.2 MMT). Potential exports could reach up to 250 thsd tonnes (0.4 mln tonnes expected this season), while sunflower oil crushing could reach almost 13.6 MMT. This season, processing will reach 13.5 MMT.

In 2024, the rapeseed harvest is expected to reach 4.2 MMT (in 2023 – just over 4.3 MMT), while exports in 2024/2025 MY could be the same as in the current season – 3.6 MMT.

As far as soybeans are concerned, this is the only crop where farmers will be able to increase planted areas this year due to its profitability. The 2024 soybean harvest is expected to reach 5.5 MMT (4.9 MMT in 2023). Potential exports in 2024/2025 MY could reach 4 MMT (3.3 MMT in the current season).

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