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UGA cuts 2024 crop estimate to 74.6 MMT of grains and oilseeds

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The Ukrainian Grain Association has slightly lowered its estimate of the potential harvest in 2024 compared to the previous forecast – by 1.5 MMT to 74.6 MMT of grains and oilseeds. As a reminder, in 2023 the UGA harvest estimated at 82.8 MMT of grains and oilseeds. The current forecast is based on the average weather conditions of the last 5 years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in the spring and summer may lead to adjustments. The potential decline in the new season’s harvest is due both to a reduction in the area under cultivation (mainly grains due to unfavourable world price conditions and relatively expensive export logistics) and to a somewhat dryness in May this year in several regions in the East and South of the country.

Exports in the new 2024/2025 season will amount to 43.5 million tonnes. In the current season, which is coming to an end, the export of grains and oilseeds could reach 53.2 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds.

The UGA forecasts the 2024 wheat crop at 19.1 MMT, down 900 thousand tonnes from the previous estimate (22 MMT in 2023). Potential wheat exports in 2024/2025 MY could be around 13 MMT, taking into account carryover stocks of around 2.4 MMT at the start of the season.

The 2024 barley crop could reach 4.6 MMT (5.8 MMT in 2023), while potential exports in 2024/2025 MY is expected to be around 2 MMT (in the current season, barley exports is forecasted at 2.5 MMT).

Expectations for the new season’s corn crop are deteriorating due to a possible reduction in the corn area and dryness in some regions. As a result, the UGA estimates the corn crop at 25.5 MMT, which is 800 thousand tonnes less than the previous estimate and 4.1 MMT less than last year’s 29.6 MMT. At the same time, potential exports could be around 20.5 MMT (exports is expected to reach 26 MMT this season).

The 2024 sunflower crop is expected to be 13.7 MMT (in 2023 – 14.2 MMT). Potential exports could reach up to 250 thousand tonnes (0.4 MMT expected this season), while sunflower domestic oil crushing could reach almost 13.6 MMT. This season, processing will reach 13.5 MMT.

In 2024, the rapeseed harvest is expected to reach 4.3 MMT (in 2023 – 4.5 MMT), while exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 3.4 MMT (in the current season – 3.7 MMT).

The 2024 soybean harvest is expected to reach 5.5 MMT (4.9 MMT in 2023). Potential exports in 2024/2025 MY could reach 4 MMT (3.3 MMT in the current season).

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