Due to aggressive and brutal russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, despite the occupation of territories and mining of fields, thanks to the courage of Ukrainian farmers, Ukraine will be provided with grain and be able to export grains to the world market.
This year, Ukraine can produce about 66.5 million tons of grain and oilseeds from an area of about 18.8 million hectares. At the same time, exports from Ukraine in the new season could reach 30 million tons, if the capacity of crossings at the borders of Ukraine will be doubled. Given the current capacity, Ukraine can count on exports of 12-18 million tons in the 2022/2023 marketing year.
In addition, the ending stocks in 2021/2022 MY will be about 25 mmt, and in 2022/2023 MY according to the optimistic forecast may increase to 31 million tons, and pessimistic – about 43 million tons.
This year’s wheat crop in Ukraine is expected at 19.2 mmt, which is significantly lower than last year’s record (33 mmt), but this figure is three times higher than Ukraine consumes wheat per year. Thus ending stocks of wheat of the last harvest make almost 10 mmt. Export of wheat in 2022/2023 MY taking into account ending stocks could reach 10 mmt of wheat.
This year production of barley is expected at the level of 6.6 mmt (in 2021 – 10.1 mmt), and export in 2022/2023 MY is expected – almost2 mmt. Corn production in the new season is expected at 26,1 mmt (37.6 mmt last year), while export could reach about 15 mmt.
The sunflower crop is expected at 9 mmt (16.9 million tons in 2021). Rapeseed crop is projected at 1.5 mmt (2.9 million tons in 2021), while export of 2022/2023 MY are expected at 1.3 mmt. Soybean harvest is expected at 2.1 mmt (in 2021 – 3.5 million tons), and exports of 2022/2023 MY can be expected at 0.8 mmt.
In general, exports of grain and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at 30 million tons, if Ukraine due to the blockade of Black Sea ports can double the capacity of other logistics routes, including railway crossings on the borders with EU countries. Today, the capacity of alternative routes is not more than 1.5 mmt per month. Ukraine and partner countries, as well as the EU at all levels, are working to increase the capacity of alternative logistics routes by removing all bureaucratic and technical barriers. In order for Ukraine to reach the export rate of 30 million tons, it is necessary to increase the capacity at the EU borders crossings to 3 mmt per month.
Ukraine is guaranteed to have sufficient grain reserves, while the world will not receive a significant volume of grain from Ukraine due to russia’s war against Ukraine, which will lead to rising prices and food inflation, even in developed countries. According to the UN, food shortages and high prices could lead to famine in many poor countries, mass protests and riots, and the consequent mass migration of people from Africa and the Middle East to the EU.
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