ABARES experts again raise Australia’s wheat, barley and rapeseed crop forecasts

In a March report, experts from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) increased their forecast for winter crop production (including wheat, barley and rapeseed) in Australia in MY 2025/26Y from 66.3 to 68.4 million tonnes, due to better-than-expected yields, compared to December estimates. This would be 13% higher than last year and 15% higher than the 5-year average (59.5 million tonnes), making it the second-largest winter crop in the country’s history.

Harvest results indicate that yields have exceeded expectations, particularly in Western Australia and Victoria, for which winter crop production forecasts have been raised by 2% and 11% respectively.

Compared to December estimates, production forecasts for major winter crops have been increased as follows:

• wheat – from 35.6 to 36 million tons (34.111 million tons last year), which will be the third largest harvest after 40.5 million tons in the 2022/23 season and 36.2 million tons in the 2021/22 season, as the reduction in sowing area by 5% to 12.4 million hectares will be compensated by a significant improvement in yield,
• barley – from 15.7 to a record 16.3 million tons (USDA estimates it at 15 million tons), which will exceed the record 14.65 million tons of the 2020/21 season and by 19% the 2024/25 MY indicator, as the sowing area increased by 3% to 4.7 million hectares, and the yield significantly exceeded the annual average,
• rapeseed – from 7.2 to 7.7 million tons (USDA estimated it at 6.7 million tons in November), which will exceed the 2024/25 MY figure by 26% (6.1 million tons) and will become the second highest harvest in history after 8.44 million tons in the 2022/23 season due to an increase in sowing area by 8% to 3.7 million hectares and significantly higher than average annual yields.

According to ABARES, the area sown to winter crops in the MY 2025/26 increased to a record 25.2 million hectares, particularly in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia, which partially offset the reduction in areas in New South Wales and Victoria.

At the same time, sorghum production in MY 2025/26 will decrease, according to the ABARES forecast, by 6% to 2.5 million tons (which will still exceed the 5-year average by 7%), despite an increase in sowing area by 11% and an average level of soil moisture in the early development period, as below-average precipitation in the summer and significantly higher than average temperatures reduced the yield by 16% compared to the previous season, although it will remain at the level of the 5-year average.

The ABARES report provides forecasts for area, yield and production of Australia’s major winter and summer crops and is published quarterly in March, June, September and December.

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