USDA raises Ukraine wheat production and export forecast

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its forecast for global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year to 820.06 million tonnes in its June WASDE report, up 1 million tonnes from the May estimate. Global wheat exports are now projected at 211.95 million tonnes, while ending stocks are expected to reach 275.42 million tonnes. However, the impact on the overall balance remains limited due to higher projected consumption.

For Ukraine, USDA raised its wheat production forecast to 23.5 million tonnes from 23 million tonnes previously. The export outlook was also increased to 14 million tonnes from 13 million tonnes, reflecting expectations of stronger shipments in the upcoming season. At the same time, ending stocks were reduced to 2.53 million tonnes, indicating tighter domestic supplies.

Among major exporters, Russia received the largest upward revision, with wheat production now forecast at 88 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Australia’s crop estimate was lowered by 2 million tonnes, while forecasts for Canada, the EU and Argentina remained unchanged.

Analysts say the June WASDE report brought no major surprises to the wheat market. Higher production forecasts for Ukraine and Russia were partly offset by a lower outlook for Australia, while stronger global consumption largely absorbed the increase in supply. As a result, global ending stocks rose by only 0.4 million tonnes, providing some support to wheat prices but unlikely to significantly alter market trends.

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