UN forecasts rising temperature records over the next five years

Over the next five years, the Earth is highly likely to once again exceed the international climate threshold considered safe. New records for the hottest years in history are also expected. This is stated in new climate forecasts by the United Nations, AP reports.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also forecasts dangerous overheating in the Arctic, with warming of nearly 1.66°C by 2030, as well as severe drought in the Amazon that could trigger massive wildfires.

According to forecasts by the UN climate agency and the UK Met Office, there is a 75% probability that the average global temperature in 2026–2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This threshold was established by the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement as the acceptable limit of warming.

A subsequent UN scientific report explained that exceeding the 1.5°C threshold would lead to higher mortality, greater risks to people, and species loss. Even a few tenths of a degree are critically important for ecosystems such as coral reefs and glaciers, which cannot withstand additional stress.

There is a 91% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed the 1.5°C threshold, and an 86% probability that one of those years will break the record for the hottest year, set in 2024. The organization forecasts that every year through 2030 will be 1.3–1.9°C warmer compared to the late 19th century.

Nearly all short-term forecasts predict the development of a strong El Niño — a natural warming of part of the Pacific Ocean that alters global weather patterns and raises global temperatures. According to forecasts, this phenomenon could last until 2028. Experts therefore believe that 2027 is likely to surpass the temperature record set in 2024.

If the average temperature over the next five years exceeds 1.5°C, it would mean that the Earth is warming by about a quarter of a degree per decade, faster than before. Previously, the warming rate was around 0.2°C per decade.

Forecasts based on about 200 computer simulations using 13 different climate models show that the Arctic will warm 3.5 times faster than the rest of the planet. The reason is the shrinking area of ice and snow, which previously reflected solar radiation back into space. Between 2020 and 2025, Arctic winters were on average 1.2°C warmer compared to the 1991–2020 period. The next five winters are forecast to be 2.8°C warmer than the recent average. Further reductions in Arctic summer sea ice are also expected.

The report notes that the Amazon basin is expected to face even higher temperatures and unusually dry conditions. This could have catastrophic consequences both for local populations and for the planet as a whole. People depend on the Amazon as a source of water, while heat and drought increase the risk of wildfires. As a result, the Amazon, which currently absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, could itself become a source worsening the climate crisis.

At the same time, the Sahel region in Africa, which has suffered from drought in recent years, is expected to receive more rainfall, potentially leading to flooding.

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