The Ukrainian Grain Association has updated its estimate of the potential crop in 2023, increasing it by another 1.1 MMT to 81.6 MMT of grains and oilseeds. As a reminder, in 2022, the UGA estimated the crop at 73.8 MMT of grains and oilseeds. Favorable weather conditions and better crop yields explain the constant growth of this year’s harvest forecast. This time, the harvest has been improved due to an increase in the expected harvest of corn and sunflower seeds.
Exports from Ukraine in the new 2023/2024 season could potentially reach almost 50 MMT. Last season (ended on June 30, 2023), it reached 58 million tons.
The UGA once again emphasizes that such export volumes in the new season can only be achieved if Ukraine can export through its Black Sea ports, as well as if the logistics of alternative routes, including the Danube route, are improved and cheaper. Exporting grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to deliver Ukrainian grain quickly and efficiently to countries that desperately need it.
The estimate of the wheat crop in 2023 remained at 22 MMT, and according to the preliminary data of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the harvest of wheat reached 22.4 MMT (20.2 MMT in 2022, and a record 33 MMT in 2021). Potential wheat exports in 2023/2024 MY may reach about 16 MMT.
The estimation of barley harvest in 2023 also remained at 5.8 MMT, according to the preliminary data of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy – 5.9 MMT of barley harvested this year (in 2021 – 10.1 MMT, and in 2022 – 5.8 MMT), and the potential export in 2023/2024 MY can be expected at 3 MMT. The expectations for corn crop in the new season improved slightly – by 0.8 MMT to 28.8 MMT (in 2021 – 37.6 MMT, in 2022 – 27.3 MMT), while the potential exports could reach about 23 MMT. According to the preliminary data of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of 2.11, 17.1 MMT of corn were harvested from 60% of the planted area.
The sunflower crop in 2023 is expected to reach 14.2 MMT (in 2021 – 16.9 MMT, in 2022 – 11.1 MMT), while the potential exports could reach 0.6 MMT. Domestic Sunflower seeds processing for oil may reach 13.2 MMT. As of November 2, 11.3 MMT of sunflower seeds were harvested, according to the preliminary data of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy.
The rapeseed harvest in 2023 is estimated at 4.2 MMT (according to the preliminary data of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, 4 MMT were harvested), while the exports in 2023/2024 MY are expected at 3.7 MMT. The soybean harvest is expected at 4.8 MMT (according to the preliminary data of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the harvest was 4.6 MMT), and the potential exports in 2023/2024 MY may reach 3.3 MMT.
© Всеукраинская общественная организация производителей, переработчиков и экспортеров зерна, 1997-2023.
При цитировании и использовании любых
материалов ссылка на Украинскую зерновую
ассоциацию обязательна.При использовании в
интернет обязательна так же гиперссылка
на http://uga-port.org.ua Site development
To register on the website, please contact the administration UGA email@example.com