The Ukrainian Grain Association has updated its harvest forecast for the current year, reducing it to 64.5 mmt. This is primarily due to a decrease of almost 1 million hectares of seeded area (to 18 million hectares) from which it is possible to harvest the crop. Despite the tenacity and courage of Ukrainian farmers, there are objective obstacles to harvesting on mined, occupied areas and destroyed crops. The previous UGA’s forecast of the harvest amounted to 69.4 mmt.
Exports from Ukraine under these conditions in the 2022/2023 marketing year may still amount to 32.8 mmt, provided that the sea route of export is preserved and the capacity of crossings at the borders of Ukraine is increased. At the same time, with the ending stocks at the beginning of the season of 26 mmt of grain and oilseeds, in 2022/2023 MY the ending stocks will be 30.5 mmt of grain and oilseeds.
The wheat crop in Ukraine this year can be expected at the level of 19 mmt. At the same time, the ending stocks of wheat of the last year crop amounted to more than 10 mmt. The export of wheat in 2022/2023 MY, taking into account the large ending stocks, may amount to about 10 mmt of wheat, and the ending stocks at the end of the season will amount to 12 mmt.
The forecast for the barley crop has also decreased and is 5.4 mmt (in 2021 – 10.1 mmt), and exports in 2022/2023 MY could be expected at the level of 2 mmt. The corn crop in the new season could be expected at the level of 24 mmt (last year 37.6 mmt), while exports can amount to about 10 mmt.
The sunflower crop has not changed and is expected at the level of 9 mmt (in 2021 – 16.9 mmt), and exports is expected at the level of 6 mmt, taking into account transitional stocks from last season at the level of 5.8 mmt. The processing of sunflower into oil can reach 7 mmt (10 mmt last season).
The rapeseed crop is amounted to 3 mmt (in 2021 – 2.9 million tons), while exports in 2022/2023 MY is expected at the level of 2.8 mmt. We expect the soybean crop at the level of 2.2 mmt (in 2021 – 3.5 mmt), and exports in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the level of 1.8 mmt.
In general, the export of grain and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level, if the work of Ukrainian Black Sea ports for export is preserved. Exporting grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grains to countries that desperately need it. According to UN estimates, the lack and high cost of food can cause hunger in many poor countries of the world, mass protests and riots, and as a result mass migration of people from African and Middle Eastern countries to the EU. Even under the current conditions, we see great food inflation in the world, and even in European countries it reaches 8-12%.
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