UGA: Grain exports in the 2026/2027 marketing year could potentially reach 50.8 MMT with a crop of 83.6 MMT

The Ukrainian Grain Association forecasts the 2026 crop of grains and oilseeds at 83.6 million tonnes. It should be noted that, according to the UGA’s estimates, the 2025 crop amounted to 80 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds.

With such a crop, exports in the new 2026/2027 season could potentially reach 50.8 MMT (the estimated export volume for the current season is 42.3 MMT). However, this is an optimistic scenario, the realisation of which will be possible only if Ukraine’s logistical problems do not worsen due to Russia’s aggression and its constant bombing of Ukrainian transport infrastructure and energy facilities.

It is worth recalling that the inability to export significant volumes of the harvested crop due to logistical problems has an extremely negative impact not only on Ukrainian agricultural producers and price dynamics in the domestic market, but could also deal a severe blow to Ukraine’s economy and its balance of payments.

The UGA estimates the wheat crop in 2026 at 22.8 MMT (22.5 MMT in 2025). Potential wheat exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year could reach 17 MMT (13.5 MMT in the current season).

According to the UGA’s estimates, the barley crop in 2026 could amount to 5.2 MMT (4.9 MMT in 2025), whilst exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year is expected to reach around 2.2 MMT (1.6 MMT expected in the current season).

The outlook for this year’s corn harvest is good thanks to favourable weather conditions so far. According to the UGA’s estimate, the corn crop will amount to 32.1 MMT (31.1 MMT in 2025), and potential exports in the new season could reach 27 MMT, but, again, provided logistics remain unhindered (22 MMT in the current season).

The sunflower crop in 2026 is expected to reach 13.3 MMT (11.1 MMT in 2025). Traditionally, almost all sunflowers will be processed in Ukraine – 13.5 MMT. Exports will not exceed 50,000 tonnes.

In 2026, the rapeseed harvest could reach 3.4 MMT (3.2 MMT in 2025), whilst exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year may amount to only 1.9 MMT, with the remainder being processed in Ukraine.

This year’s soyabean crop could amount to 4.9 MMT (5 MMT in 2025). Potential exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year could amount to 2.3 MMT (2.9 MMT in the current season), with the remainder being processed in Ukraine, as legislative restrictions make its export difficult, just as with rapeseed.