Favourable short-term prospects for cereal markets

Forecast at 2 990 million tonnes, world cereal production (including rice in milled equivalent) is expected to reach a record level in 2025, up 4.4 percent from 2024. Outputs of all major cereals are anticipated to rise, with the largest year-on-year increase forecast for maize and the smallest for rice. Both maize and rice outputs are predicted to hit new record highs.

World cereal utilization in 2025/26 is forecast at 2 929 million tonnes, up 51.9 million tonnes or 1.8 percent from 2024/25. The growth is expected to result mainly from ample supplies and lower prices. Feed use of cereals is expected to rise by 2.1 percent, with major producers such as Brazil and the United States of America directing more maize to animal rations, while in Asia, strong demand from aquaculture is expected to be met though imports of feed-quality wheat. Other uses of cereals, particularly maize, are also set to increase. Human consumption of cereals is forecast to rise marginally, reflecting population growth and gradual dietary shifts.

Based on the current forecasts for global cereal production in 2025, stocks could rise by 5.7 percent from their opening levels to a record high of 916.3 million tonnes. Global maize inventories are expected to expand the most, especially in Northern America, followed by wheat and barley, while global sorghum stocks may decrease slightly. World rice stocks at the close of the 2025/26 marketing years are forecast to rise by 2.2 percent to a new peak of 215.4 million tonnes. Overall, the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2025/26 is predicted to rise to 31.1 percent, the highest level since 2017/18. .

World trade in cereals in the 2025/26 season is anticipated to expand by 3.2 percent to 499.5 million tonnes. Wheat trade (July/June) is expected to rise by 9.9 million tonnes, or 5.1 percent from the previous season, driven largely by Asian imports, which are forecast to increase by 15.6 million tonnes. Global trade in coarse grains is anticipated to expand amid relatively low export prices and stronger demand for animal protein, though traded volumes will likely remain below the 2023/24 peak. By contrast, global rice trade is forecast to decline by 1.2 percent to 61.1 million tonnes in 2026.

For a more detailed analysis of global cereal markets, see the forthcoming issue of Food Outlook, which will be released on 13 November 2025.

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