Brazil to increase soybean crush to a record 62.5 mln tons

Brazil’s domestic soybean crush is expected to reach a record 62.5 mln tons in the 2026/27 marketing year, up 2.4% from the current season. According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS), the increase will be driven primarily by rising demand from the biodiesel industry.

Despite the postponement of the mandatory B16 biodiesel blend, domestic industrial consumption of soybean oil is expected to continue growing. USDA forecasts industrial soybean oil use at 7 mln tons in 2026/27, compared with 6.8 mln tons in the current season, supported by existing biodiesel blending requirements.

USDA also maintained its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop at 184 mln tons, which would mark a third consecutive record harvest. Soybean planted area is expected to expand to 50.5 mln hectares, although growth will be slower than the five-year average because of uncertainty over future biodiesel policy and higher production costs.

Most of the expansion is expected in the MATOPIBA region, as well as northern Mato Grosso and parts of Pará and Maranhão. At the same time, the national average yield is projected to ease slightly to 3.64 t/ha due to El Niño-related weather risks and higher fertilizer costs. In the current 2025/26 season, Brazil has already harvested a record 180 mln tons with an average yield of 3.66 t/ha.

Private investment is also supporting the expansion of Brazil’s processing industry. Chinese agribusiness giant COFCO is investing more than $400 million to expand its soybean processing facility in Mato Grosso. Once completed, the plant will become the country’s largest soybean crushing complex, increasing its daily processing capacity from about 4.5 thsd tons to 10 thsd tons.

USDA also forecasts another record for Brazil’s soybean exports, which are expected to reach 117.5 mln tons in 2026/27, up from 115 mln tons in the current season. China will remain the leading buyer, although export growth is expected to slow because of rising domestic processing and stronger competition from Argentina. Soybean meal exports are projected to increase to 26 mln tons, supported by solid demand from Southeast Asia and the European Union.

Despite record production and export forecasts, Brazilian farmers continue to face rising production costs. Soybean production costs in Mato Grosso increased by nearly 8% over the past year due to higher fertilizer and labor expenses, while high interest rates continue to limit investment. At the same time, the relatively weak Brazilian real is expected to support the country’s export competitiveness, helping Brazil strengthen its position in the global soybean market.

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