Analysts raise EU grain production forecast: record wheat, 17-year high for barley

Expana, a research agency, has raised its forecast for European Union grain production for the 2025/26 season, expecting wheat production to reach a record high and barley to its highest level in 17 years, Reuters reports.

In its new grain forecast report, Expana raised its estimate for EU wheat production by 0.3 million tonnes from last month to 136.4 million tonnes, up 22.8 million tonnes from the 2024/25 season, when the crop was hit by rain.

Barley production was also revised up by 0.2 million tonnes to 56.4 million tonnes, up 6.2 million tonnes from last year.

For corn, Expana raised its harvest forecast by 0.8 million tonnes to 56.5 million tonnes as the harvest turned out to be slightly better than previously expected. However, this figure is still 2.5 million tonnes lower than last year and the second lowest since 2007.

As of early October, corn harvesting is underway in most European regions, with the exception of Poland, where crop development is about a month behind.

“The contrast between the good corn harvest in the northern part of the EU and the disastrous results in the south is likely to be even more pronounced than in the 2024/25 season,” Expana said.

Analysts expect EU soft wheat exports to increase sharply this season, but their dynamics will be held back by tough competition on global markets, in particular from the US, Australia and Argentina.

“European exports, especially French, started slowly, but in recent weeks French wheat has regained its position thanks to improved competitiveness,” the Expana report said.

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