Ukraine’s agricultural exports slow as a large crop faces expensive logistics

UkrAgroConsult currently estimates Ukraine 2026 grain crop at approximately 64 M mt. Usually, the large harvest would support exports, terminal loading and demand for domestic transport. Currently, 64 M mt generate problems with exports.

According to UkrAgroConsult, Ukrainian July exports were 2.9 M mt, 33% less than in June, before the attacks started. The 2.9 M mt estimate is based on the preliminary dataset used in this analysis. Another source – UCAB estimates July exports bigger at 3.67 M mt, down 23.4% m/m. The difference probably reflects product coverage or the reporting date.

The July 2026 result was approximately in line with July 2025. However, last year’s harvest started later, delaying the increasing supply of new-crop grain. In July 2026, more grain was available, but logistics were less able to ship it.

Data for the second half of July already show a sharp reduction in exports through the Greater Odesa/POC (POC = Pivdennyi, Odesa, Chornomorsk) ports. They do not yet show the full shift toward land borders and the Danube ports because rebuilding logistics chains takes time.

Optimistic scenario is that alternative routes could operate in full strength by late Aug. But the rerouting may replace only 50-55% of the shipments previously made through the deep-sea ports.

The small number of vessels continuing to enter and leave the Greater Odesa ports face high security and insurance risks. On August 5, the Guinea-Bissau-flagged dry bulk vessel MERA QUEEN, carrying Ukrainian wheat, was hit in the Black Sea. The incident was confirmed by the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority. Such incidents make alternative routes increasingly attractive even if they are more expensive.

https://ukragroconsult.com