Brazil set for a third consecutive record soybean harvest

Brazil is on track to achieve another record soybean harvest in the 2026/27 season, marking its third consecutive record crop. According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS USDA), soybean production is forecast at 184 mln tons, up 2.2% from the revised 2025/26 estimate. The increase will be driven primarily by an expansion in planted area, although higher production costs, elevated interest rates, and weather risks associated with El Niño are expected to limit faster growth.

FAS also forecasts Brazil’s soybean crush at 62.5 mln tons, up 2.4% from the previous season. The increase will be supported by abundant soybean supplies and steady domestic demand for processed products. Soybean meal production is projected at 47.4 mln tons, driven by continued growth in the livestock sector, while soybean oil output is expected to reach 12.8 mln tons.

However, further expansion of the processing industry is likely to remain moderate due to uncertainty surrounding Brazil’s biodiesel policy. The planned increase in the mandatory biodiesel blend to B16 has been postponed indefinitely, reducing incentives for rapid investments in additional crushing capacity.

A major boost to the sector is expected from Chinese agribusiness giant COFCO, which plans to invest more than $400 mln in expanding its soybean crushing facility in Mato Grosso state. Once completed, the plant’s daily processing capacity will increase from 4.5 thsd tons to 10 thsd tons, making it one of the largest soybean processing facilities in Brazil.

Brazil’s soybean exports are forecast to reach a record 117.5 mln tons in the 2026/27 season, compared with 115 mln tons a year earlier. China is expected to remain the dominant buyer, although export growth could slow over the longer term due to stronger competition from Argentina and China’s continued efforts to expand its domestic soybean processing industry, gradually reducing its dependence on imported soybeans.

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