Global economy is showing unexpected resilience

The global economy is proving more resilient than expected. GDP growth in 2026 is forecast to improve slightly compared to forecasts from June last year.

This was reported by Reuters, citing the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report.

After a 2.7% growth rate in 2025, output growth is expected to ease slightly to 2.6% this year, before returning to 2.7% in 2027.

World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill said the economic system is becoming more resilient to political uncertainty, although this dynamism cannot last forever without risks to public finances.

Growth drivers

About two-thirds of the positive revision to the global outlook is provided by the United States, whose economy is showing better dynamics than expected. Despite trade disruptions due to tariff policy, US GDP should grow by 2.2% in 2026.

This will be facilitated by significant tax breaks that offset the negative impact of tariffs on consumption and investment.

Although the beginning of 2025 was marked by a surge in imports to circumvent tariffs, domestic policy stabilization has allowed the US to maintain its role as the main engine of global growth.

Uneven development and the threat of stagnation

Despite the general optimism, the World Bank warns against excessive concentration of capital in developed countries.

The current decade risks becoming the weakest in terms of growth since the 1960s, which is not enough to overcome extreme poverty. Currently, a quarter of developing countries have lower per capita incomes than before the pandemic.

Such inequality poses a threat of long-term stagnation and unemployment in the world’s poorest regions, which remain cut off from the global recovery.

China’s economic slowdown and regional outlook

China’s economic activity is gradually cooling, with growth projected to slow from 4.9% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026. Even fiscal stimulus and a shift in exports to markets outside the US will not be able to fully halt this trend.

A similar slowdown is expected in the eurozone, where growth will fall to 0.9% due to changing trade relations with America, although defense spending may provide some support for the European economy in the future.

Japan is also stagnating at 0.8%, driven by weak domestic demand after a surge in export activity.

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