Ukraine raises forecast for winter wheat sowing area, strengthening export outlook

Ukraine’s Economy Ministry has raised its forecast for winter wheat sowing for the 2026 harvest by 9%. Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotskiy said the decision opens opportunities to boost exports, which are vital for supporting the economy and financing defense against Russian aggression, Reuters reported.

According to the updated estimates, at least 5.2 mln ha will be planted with winter wheat, compared with the previous forecast of 4.78 mln ha — roughly the same as this year’s figure. These numbers do not include spring wheat, which usually covers about 200 thsd ha.

Vysotskiy noted that the expansion comes at the expense of corn and sunflower crops, which were badly damaged by drought this year. “I think producers will draw conclusions after this year’s situation. In the southern regions, farmers may decide not to sow sunflowers and corn, opting instead for winter wheat,” he explained.

This year’s drought almost wiped out Ukraine’s sunflower harvest and sharply reduced corn yields. In many regions, farmers are now reconsidering their crop structure and shifting toward more resilient varieties.

Winter wheat is considered more reliable, as it can use moisture accumulated in the soil during autumn, winter, and spring. Unlike many other crops, it is less dependent on spring rainfall, making it more resilient under climate risks.

Ukraine harvested 22.5 mln tons of wheat in 2025. In the 2024/25 season (July–June), 15.7 mln tons were exported. Although the forecast for the 2026 harvest has not yet been announced, the increase in the area under crops gives reason to expect an increase in export potential.

As of September 25, farmers had already planted 672 thsd ha of winter wheat. At the same time, the Economy Ministry reduced its forecast for winter barley sowing to 550 thsd ha from 576 thsd ha, without specifying the reasons for the revision.

https://ukragroconsult.com