USDA raises global rapeseed production forecast, offsetting lower sunflower production and boosting global oilseed production forecast

In the December world oilseed balance for 2025/26 MY, FAS USDA experts increased the forecast for world oilseed production by 2.25 million tons compared to November estimates to 690.26 million tons (684.5 million tons in 2024/25 MY and 657.4 million tons in 2023/24 MY) due to increased rapeseed and peanut yields, which more than compensates for the decrease in sunflower production.

The forecast for global rapeseed production has been increased by 3 million tonnes due to increased production in Canada and Australia, peanut production will increase by 1.1 million tonnes due to an increase in the harvest in Nigeria, and the forecast for global soybean production has been increased by 0.79 million tonnes, which compensates for the decrease in global sunflower production by 2.49 million tonnes due to a reduction in the harvest in Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

The forecast for world ending stocks of oilseeds has been increased by 1.34 million tons to 143.6 (141.6) million tons due to a decrease in processing and export volumes.

The forecast for global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 MY has been increased by 3 million tons to 95.273 (86) million tons, in particular for Canada – by 2 million tons to 22 (19.24) million tons, Australia – by 0.5 to 7.2 (6.4) million tons, and the Russian Federation – by 0.5 to 6 (4.65) million tons.

The forecast for rapeseed imports for the EU has been increased by 0.2 million tons to 5.7 (7.96) million tons against the backdrop of increasing supply on the world market.

January canola futures after the release of the StatCan report decreased by 4% since the beginning of December to 620 CAD/t or 448 $/t (-4% for the month), and February rapeseed futures in Paris yesterday fell by 1% to 471.75 €/t or 548.7 $/t (-1.7% for the month) under pressure from increasing supply.

The global soybean balance in December remained virtually unchanged.

The forecast for world soybean production in 20205/26 MY has been increased by 0.79 million tons to 422.54 (427.15) million tons, in particular for the Russian Federation – up to 9 million tons (7 million tons last year) and India – by 0.5 to 10.5 (12.6) million tons. However, the forecast for Ukraine has been reduced by 0.2 to 6 (7) million tons, as well as for Canada.

The forecast for world ending soybean stocks has been increased by 0.38 million tons to 122.37 (123.24) million tons.

January soybean futures in Chicago fell 0.6% to $399.5/t after the report was released and are trading 4% lower than a month ago due to low US export rates.

The forecast for world sunflower production has been reduced by 2.49 million tons to 51.77 (52.14) million tons, in particular for the Russian Federation – by 1 to 17.5 (16.9) million tons, for Ukraine – by 1.5 to 10.5 (13) million tons.

USDA experts have reduced the forecast for sunflower yield in Ukraine by 9% to 1.88 t/ha compared to November estimates, and the area to be harvested by 3% to 5.6 million hectares, which will be 13% and 7% lower than last year’s figures, respectively.

The forecast for global sunflower processing has been reduced by 2.35 million tons to 51.75 million tons, which will be 0.7% lower than last season’s figure (52.1 million tons).

The forecast for ending sunflower stocks has been reduced by 0.25 million tons to 2.8 million tons (compared to 2.93 last season).

Sunflower prices in Ukraine remain at the level of 28,000-29,500 UAH/t (with delivery to the factory at 50% oil content), which is 3.5-4% higher than a month ago.

Oilseed markets will remain under pressure from reduced supply throughout the month, but in January-February, if the soybean harvest in South America reaches the forecast level, prices will begin to fall under pressure from increased supply.

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