The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) unexpectedly sharply lowered its forecast for the corn harvest in Ukraine in a December report, which led to a decrease in the forecast for global production and world stocks in the updated balance for the 2025/26 MY.
The forecast for the corn harvest in Ukraine in the 2025/26 MY has been reduced by 3 million tons to 29 million tons, which will still exceed last year’s figure by 8%. Due to the delay in harvesting and unfavorable conditions, USDA experts have reduced the yield estimate by 5% compared to November to 6.9 tons/hectare, and the area to be harvested – by 5% to 4.2 million hectares, which will exceed last year’s figures by 6% and 2%, respectively.
The US corn production forecast was left unchanged, but the export forecast was raised, which lowered the inventory estimate and supported quotes in Chicago.
December corn futures in Chicago rose 1% to $173.5/t after the report was released and are trading 2.4% higher than after the November report.
The world corn balance for the 2025/26 MY has undergone the following changes compared to November estimates:
- The forecast for initial stocks was increased by 1.71 million tons to 293.37 (315.45 in 2024/25 MY) million tons due to the balance adjustment for 2024/25 MY, in particular, a reduction in global consumption by 1.9 million tons to 1,252.69 million tons and an increase in stocks in Argentina.
- The forecast for world corn production has been reduced by 3.27 million tons (which will still be a record level) to 1,282.96 (1,230.6) million tons, in particular for Ukraine – by 3 million tons to 29 (26.8) million tons, Canada – by 0.68 million tons to 14.87 (15.35) million tons, as well as for Nigeria, Indonesia and Senegal, which is partially offset by an increase in the estimate for the EU by 1 million tons to 56.75 (59) million tons and the Russian Federation – by 0.4 million tons to 14.5 (14) million tons. At the same time, the harvest forecasts for China, the USA and Brazil were left unchanged, although analysts expect a slight increase in estimates.
- The forecast for world consumption has been increased by 0.64 million tons to a record 1,297.18 million tons, which will exceed production levels by 14 million tons and consumption levels by 44.5 million tons in 2024/25. For some reason, experts do not take into account that an increase in world wheat production by 37 million tons compared to the last season will greatly reduce corn consumption, especially if it is more expensive than wheat.
- The forecast for world corn exports has been increased by 1.63 million tons to 205.1 million tons (for the 2024/25 MY, the forecast has been reduced from 188.5 to 187.14) due to an increase in the export forecast for the USA by 3.17 million tons to 81.28 (72.6) million tons, which compensates for the decrease in supplies from Ukraine by 1.5 million tons to 23 (20) million tons.
- The forecast for world corn imports has been reduced by 0.75 million tons to 190.37 (185) million tons, in particular for the EU – by 1 million tons to 20 (18.6) million tons.
- The forecast for ending corn stocks has been reduced by 2.2 million tons to 278.2 (293.37) million tons, in particular for the USA – by 3.18 million tons to 51.53 (38.9) million tons and Ukraine – by 0.7 million tons to 0.85 (0.84) million tons, which is partially offset by the increase in stocks in Argentina.
Analysts expect crop forecasts for China and Brazil to be raised in subsequent reports and consumption forecasts to be lowered amid a fairly high supply of both feed grains and meals this season.
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