Soybean prices rise despite higher production forecasts in Argentina and Brazil, as well as increased global soybean trade volumes

On Wednesday, Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange raised its forecast for Argentina’s 2025/26 soybean harvest by 1 million tons to 48 million tons, thanks to favorable weather conditions in the west and north of the country.

At the same time, exchange experts left the corn harvest forecast at a record level of 62 million tons, noting that precipitation over the next 10-15 days will be decisive for the yields of both crops.

Soybean crops are at a critical stage of yield development, according to the BCR’s monthly report on the state of grain crops.

According to forecasts from the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, 25-75 mm of precipitation will fall in the northern agricultural areas over the next seven days, and up to 100 mm of precipitation will fall in the central part of the province of Santa Fe.

Experts at the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange left the forecast for the soybean harvest in Argentina at 48.5 million tons, which is in line with USDA estimates and will be inferior to last year’s harvest of 51 million tons. Currently, 32% of soybean crops are in good or excellent condition (40% last week).

The Brazilian agency CONAB has raised its soybean harvest forecast in Brazil by 1.86 million tons to 177.98 million tons, which is lower than the USDA’s February forecast (180 million tons) but higher than last year’s harvest (171.5 million tons).

According to Oil World, after several difficult months, global soybean exports in January rose to 8.11 million tonnes, up 1.6 million tonnes or 24% from January 2025. The main drivers of this growth were the US and Brazil. In January, soybean shipments from the US to China increased from 1.2 to 3.3 million tonnes compared to December (1.8 million tonnes in January 2025), bringing total soybean exports from the US in January to a 13-month high of 5.9 million tonnes (4.1 million tonnes in December).

However, overall, from September to January 2025/26 MY, soybean exports from the US amounted to only 22.55 million tons, which is significantly lower than last year’s pace (35.3 million tons) and the 5-year average (38.14 million tons).

At the same time, Brazil exported 1.9 million tons of soybeans in January (1.1 million tons in January 2025), and total soybean exports in the 2025/26 MY amounted to 23.5 million tons (compared to 16.4 million tons last year).

March futures for US soybeans in Chicago continue to rise on expectations of increased exports from the US to China and do not react to the increase in global production forecasts. They rose by another 2.2% to $418/t over the week (+9.2% over the month), but we expect quotes to decline against the backdrop of falling prices for Brazilian soybeans and active purchases of cheap Brazilian soybeans by China.

The growth of quotations in Chicago also contributes to a further increase in soybean prices in Ukraine, which already reach $435/t for deliveries to ports.

The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) has raised its forecast for soybean exports from Brazil in February 2026 to 11.42 – 11.71 million tons, which would significantly exceed the 9.7 million tons exported in February 2025.

https://graintrade.com.ua