Facilitating the reintegration of the Black Sea region into the global grains market

“Facilitating the reintegration of the Black Sea region into the global grains market” Monday 31 October 2022 at 11.00 am to 4.30 pm (UK time)

IGC webinars aim to highlight the most topical issues facing global markets for grains, oilseeds, rice and pulses, while providing a unique platform for the exchange of views and discussion among experts from private and public sectors. In line with the Grains Trade Convention, which seeks to further international cooperation, to promote the expansion of international trade and to contribute to market transparency in order to enhance world food security, webinars are open to the public.

Background information
The Black Sea region is a major player in the global grains market, with aggregate exports in the 2020/21 season estimated at over 110m t, equivalent to more than one-quarter of world trade. The region has traditionally been a central supplier for many regions, including Europe and the Mediterranean, Near East Asia, Southeast Asia and Sub-Sahara Africa.

In addition to the huge grains sector, oilseeds, namely sunflowerseed, rapeseed and soyabeans, have become an increasingly important cropping choice for the region’s farmers over the past decade and more, shaped by expanding local and international demand. In addition to unprocessed exports, Russia and Ukraine are the dominant exporters of (processed) sunflower products, notably sunflower oil and sunflower meal, to an array of world markets, in Europe, Asia and beyond, to meet food and feed sector requirements. In recent seasons, the combined share of world trade flows in sunflower products has been as high as 80%.

Agricultural exports from the region have been disrupted since the Russia-Ukraine military conflict began in late-February, while the subsequent suspension of trade statistics from the former, coupled with ongoing difficulties to identify export price references in the latter, mean that the Black Sea region has become increasingly opaque and somewhat disconnect from the global market. Along with challenging trading conditions, logistical difficulties and perceived security risks for ship owners, this has contributed to uncertainty about future availabilities, thereby raising food security risks for a number of net importers, especially in Africa and Near East Asia.

The resumption of seaborne shipments of grains, oilseeds and products from Ukraine following the late-July deal to establish safe corridors from some Black Sea ports has helped to alleviate the potential for a global food crisis and contributed to a retreat in world prices. However, with dispatches still relatively small compared to the past, a further reintegration of the country into the global market will require an assessment of the entire grains value chain. This includes grower and trade financing, inland and international logistics, freight costs and the investment needed to rebuild trade infrastructure and confidence amongst global importers.

Objective:
The first of the two planned webinars will address the need to restructure the grains and oilseeds markets in the Black Sea region, including areas related to seed production, storage capacity, price discovery mechanisms and ensuring cash flows for the farming sector.

The second webinar will focus on logistical aspects of grains and oilseeds trade, namely on ways to improve the availability of ocean going vessels in the region, transportation bottlenecks and investment requirements for land routes and deep sea ports, as well as financing needs of the region’s agri-food sector.

The half-day Forum in January 2023 will provide an opportunity to take stock after webinar discussions with IGC members and other international organisations.

NB: Interpretation into Ukrainian will be provided to facilitate the contribution of farmer organisations.

WEBINAR REGISTRATION: Monday 31st October at 11.00 am to 4.30 pm (UK time)
Please register for the event via the link below:
https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZUodeuvqzkuG9Y-rNNcVu8uXnM-C98fsT2w 

DRAFT AGENDA
FACILITATING THE REINTEGRATION OF THE BLACK SEA REGION INTO THE
GLOBAL GRAINS MARKET

11.00 – 11.05: Introduction: Arnaud Petit, IGC Executive Director

11.05–11.45: SETTING THE SCENE/ BLACK SEA GRAINS AND OILSEEDS
PRODUCTION IN 2022/23 AND TENTATIVE OBSERVATIONS FOR
2023/24
Inbal Becker-Reshef, Program Director, NASA Harvest
Russia: Production outlook, Refinitiv (tbc)

11.45 – 12.45: CHALLENGES FOR THE INPUT SECTOR FOR SPRING SOWING
ISF representative in Ukraine (tbc)
Ukrainian farmers: (tbc)
Maria Bezzubova, Co-founder, LLC “TRUAGRO Ukraine (Fertiliser market):

13.00 – 14.00: STORAGE CAPACITY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION
Nikolay Gorbachov, President, Ukrainian Grain Association
Coceral (EU-Ukraine Solidarity Lanes Action Plan) (tbc)
Taras Vysotskiy, Deputy Minister, Ministry of Development of Economic, Trade and
Agriculture, Ukraine Ministry of Agriculture

14.00 – 15.00: PRICE DISCOVERY TOOL
Timothy Worledge, Director, Census Commodity Data, UK
Sergey Feofilov, Director General of UkrAgroConsult

15.10 – 16.10: FINANCING THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Natalia Zhukova, Director, Head of Agribusiness, European Bank for Reconstruction
and Development
Ukrainian Farmers Union (tbc)

16.10 – 16.30: CONCLUSIONS

Introduction to speakers:
Inbal Becker-Reshef, is the Director of the NASA Earth Observations for Food Security and Agriculture Program (EOFSAC), and leads the G20 GEOGLAM Crop Monitor Initiative. Her work is focused on the application of satellite information for agricultural monitoring from the field to global scales, supporting decisions in food security and agricultural markets, and working closely with a range of Government, NGO, academic, and private sector partners.

Sergey Feofilov is Director General of UkrAgroConsult, Ph.D. in Economics. He is the founder of UkrAgroConsult – the first Ukrainian consulting agency specializing in agricultural sector of Ukraine and Black Sea region (since 1994). Sergey Feofilov has more than 25 years of expertise in analysis of agricultural market of Ukraine and the Black Sea countries. He has broad international contacts in
trading, banking and investment spheres and is a recognized speaker at the major international agri conferences.

Nikolay Gorbachov has more than 30 years of experience in the agricultural market of Ukraine. In February 2017, he was elected as the President of Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) and in 2021 was re-elected for a second term. He previously co-chaired the Grains and Oilseeds Committee of the European Business Association (EBA).

Taras Vysotskyi was appointed First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine in May 2021. From 2019-2021 he was the Deputy Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine. From 2013 to 2019 he was an expert on agricultural markets, General Director of the Association “Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business. He has a Master’s degree in Administrative Management

Tim Worledge is a co-founder and director at Census Commodity Data, and shares joint responsibility for the strategic direction of the company. A former director at S&P Global Platts, Tim led the agriculture reporting team that was instrumental in the development of the Black Sea swaps and futures market and has been at the forefront of price reporting for 10 years. He was also responsible for Platts’ benchmark biofuels assessments, including global ethanol benchmarks. Before moving into agriculture, Tim was an oil market pricing expert focusing on the European refined product markets.

Natalya Zhukova is the Director of the Agribusiness Sector department, at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The EBRD is an international financing institution owned by 69 countries, from 5 continents and 2 intergovernmental organisations (EU and EIB). The Bank operates in nearly 40 countries across 3 continents including Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Southern and Eastern Mediterranean

Natalya joined the EBRD at the end of 2004 as an Associate Banker in the Agribusiness team progressing to Associate Director in 2010. During this time, she was instrumental in increasing the Agribusiness Portfolio in Russia. In 2015, Natalya assumed a temporary regional responsibility for Agribusiness in Turkey, Central Asia and the Caucasus, and was Regional Head of Agribusiness in Russia, Central Asia, Greece and Cyprus, until 2017 when she became Head of Agribusiness. Before joining the EBRD, Natalya worked as a Deputy Head of the Risk Analysis division at VTB retail arm, DeltaCredit, and in the private sector