Ukraine could potentially export 52 MMT in MY 2026/2027 if the harvest reaches 84.6 MMT of grains and oilseeds

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) forecasts Ukraine’s 2026 grain and oilseed harvest at 84.6 million metric tonnes (MMT). The estimate is up 1 MMT from the previous forecast, reflecting favorable weather and adequate soil moisture, which have improved the yield outlook for early-sown crops. For reference, UGA estimated the 2025 grain and oilseed harvest at 80 MMT.

At this level of production, exports in the new 2026/2027 marketing year (MY) could potentially reach nearly 52 MMT, up from 41.1 MMT exported last season. However, this optimistic scenario depends entirely on resolving Ukraine’s logistical constraints — specifically, a full restoration of operations at the deep-water ports of Greater Odesa, and an end to Russia’s continued strikes on Ukrainian transport infrastructure, energy facilities, and vessels calling at Ukrainian ports.

UGA reiterates that the inability to export a substantial share of the harvest due to logistics problems has a severely negative impact — not only on Ukrainian agricultural producers, who are the first to feel the effects of an export slowdown, and on domestic price conditions, but potentially on Ukraine’s broader economy and balance of payments as well.

Wheat: UGA estimates the 2026 wheat harvest at 23.7 MMT (up from 22.5 MMT in 2025). Potential wheat exports in MY 2026/2027 could reach 18 MMT, compared with 14 MMT last season.

Barley: UGA projects the 2026 barley harvest at 5.5 MMT (up from 4.9 MMT in 2025), with likely exports in MY 2026/2027 of around 2.3 MMT, compared with 1.5 MMT last season.

Corn: The outlook for this year’s corn harvest is favorable given weather conditions to date. UGA estimates the corn harvest at 32.1 MMT (up from 31.1 MMT in 2025), with potential exports in MY 2026/2027 reaching 27 MMT — again, contingent on unimpeded logistics — compared with 21 MMT last season.

Sunflower: The 2026 sunflower harvest is expected at around 13.3 MMT (up from 11.1 MMT in 2025). As is traditional, nearly all sunflower seed — 13.5 MMT — will be crushed domestically in Ukraine, with exports capped at no more than 40,000 tonnes.

Rapeseed (canola): The 2026 harvest could reach 3.5 MMT (up from 3.2 MMT in 2025). Exports in MY 2026/2027 may total just 1.9 MMT, with the remainder crushed domestically.

Soybeans: This year’s soybean harvest could total 4.6 MMT (down from 5 MMT in 2025). Potential exports in MY 2026/2027 could reach 2.2 MMT, compared with 2.7 MMT last season, with the rest processed domestically — since, like rapeseed, soybean exports face regulatory constraints.