Heat and drought to reduce EU rapeseed production

Rapeseed production in the European Union is expected to come under pressure in 2026 as prolonged drought and intense heat affect large parts of the continent. Analysts at Oil World have lowered their forecast for the EU rapeseed crop to 20.4 mln tons, warning that further weather deterioration could lead to even greater production losses.

The largest downward revisions were made for Poland and the Czech Republic. In Poland, the rapeseed area is now estimated at 1.02 mln ha, down from 1.1 mln ha a year earlier, while production is forecast at 3.3 mln tons compared with 3.63 mln tons in 2025. In the Czech Republic, the planted area is estimated at 0.33 mln ha versus 0.36 mln ha last year. Part of these losses is expected to be offset by a larger rapeseed area in Denmark.

Early harvest results are also pointing to weaker yields. By mid-July, around 11% of the Czech rapeseed crop had already been harvested, well ahead of last year’s pace, but the first yield reports have fallen short of expectations. Lower-than-expected yields are also being reported in Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania, reflecting the impact of adverse weather conditions.

A smaller EU rapeseed crop could intensify competition for available export supplies, limiting the growth of crushing volumes across the bloc during the 2026/27 season. Tighter raw material availability may also keep the European oilseed market under pressure.

Looking ahead, global rapeseed market developments will also depend on the size of Australia’s canola crop and whether China resumes rapeseed and canola imports. A smaller Australian harvest combined with stronger Chinese demand could further tighten global supplies and provide additional support for rapeseed prices.

https://ukragroconsult.com