UK Grain Output Expected to Improve in MY 2026/27

Grain production in the United Kingdom is expected to recover in the MY 2026/27 following weather-related challenges in previous seasons. According to the FAS USDA, higher wheat output will be the main driver of this improvement.

Wheat production is forecast at 13.5 million tonnes, up from an estimated 12.3 million tonnes in the previous season. The increase reflects both an expansion in harvested area and improved yields after a variable but below-average 2025 harvest.

Overall cereal planted area is expected to remain broadly stable, although the crop mix continues to shift. Farmers are gradually reducing barley, oats, and pulses in favor of wheat and other more profitable crops. Wheat harvested area is projected to rise to around 1.7 million hectares.

Average wheat yields are expected to recover to about 7.94 tonnes per hectare, compared to 7.45 tonnes per hectare a year earlier. At the same time, most farmers secured fertilizer supplies in late 2025, helping them avoid recent price increases and logistical disruptions, although farm incomes remain under pressure.

Despite improved production prospects, profitability in the sector is still constrained. Large carry-in stocks, high input costs, and ample supplies across European and global markets are likely to cap prices, limiting the extent to which better yields translate into stronger margins.

Feed use of grains is projected to increase slightly, with wheat regaining some share in feed rations, although overall usage remains relatively stable at around 8.1 million tonnes. Demand from the milling sector is also expected to remain steady, with a potential increase in the share of domestic wheat used for food if quality and pricing conditions are favorable.

Meanwhile, barley production is forecast at 6.2 million tonnes in 2026/27, down from previous years. Reduced harvested area and weaker demand from the brewing and distilling industries are prompting farmers to shift toward more profitable crops, particularly winter wheat and oilseed rape.

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