Record global sunseed harvest is expected in the 2026/27 season – Oil World

Experts from the German analytical agency Oil World have published an optimistic forecast for sunflower production. Global sunflower seed production is expected to reach record levels in the 2026/27 season, thanks to a recovery in yields and an expansion of planting area.

According to preliminary estimates by analysts, under favorable weather conditions, the global sunseed harvest could reach 62.3 million tonnes. This is significantly higher than the current 2025/26 season’s estimated 56.56 million tonnes.

The main drivers of growth will be a recovery in yields after drought losses in the previous two seasons and an increase in planting area in key producing countries. The estimates provide a detailed forecast for the main market players:

• Russia leads in growth: the harvest could increase from 17.8 to 21 million tonnes;
• Ukraine: a recovery to 12.6 million tonnes, up from 11.1 million in the current season;
• The European Union saw an increase to 9.53 million tonnes (from 8.64 million);
• Argentina saw a slight decrease to 5.9 million tonnes from 6.1 million;
• Kazakhstan saw production remain stable at 2.07 million tonnes.

Despite the positive outlook, experts remain cautious. In the coming weeks, key attention will be paid to weather conditions and the progress of the sowing campaign in the Northern Hemisphere.

For sunflower oil consumers, the situation presents both opportunities and risks. On the one hand, there is high potential for lower raw material prices in the coming months. On the other, current price premiums remain volatile.

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