USDA experts have raised their forecast for corn stocks and global production, including for Ukraine and Brazil, but have lowered their consumption estimates, which will increase pressure on prices

USDA experts in the March supply and demand report for the 2025/26 MY increased the global corn production forecast and lowered the consumption forecast, which led to an increase in the estimate of world stocks by 3.77 million tons. After the report was released, March corn futures in Chicago were unchanged and closed at $178/ton, which is 5.5% higher than the price level after the February report, as they received strong support from a 28% increase in oil prices in a month against the backdrop of the war with Iran.

The US corn forecast for the 2025/26 MY was unchanged from last month, so traders did not react much to the increase in global stocks.

Compared to February estimates, the world corn balance for the 2025/26 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The forecast for opening stocks has been increased by 1.47 million tons to 295.8 (315.25 in 2024/25 MY) million tons due to a decrease in the export forecast for Argentina for 2024/25 MY.
• The forecast for world production was increased by 1.53 million tons to 1297.44 (1230.6) million tons, in particular for Ukraine – by 1.7 million tons to 30.7 (26.8) million tons (based on the latest information from the State Statistics Service) and Brazil – by 1 million tons to 132 (136) million tons, which compensates for the decrease in the harvest in Argentina by 1 million tons to 52 (50) million tons, although local exchanges left forecasts at 57-62 million tons.
• The global consumption forecast has been reduced by 0.78 million tons to 1,300.5 million tons, which will exceed the 2024/25 MY figure by 50.5 million tons.
• The forecast for world exports was increased by 0.3 million tons to 206.85 (187.38) million tons, but the forecasts for Ukraine, Brazil, and Argentina were unchanged.
• The forecast for world imports was increased by 0.64 million tons to 192.72 (186.13) million tons, in particular for Vietnam and the Philippines, but the estimate for India was reduced.
• The forecast for ending stocks has been increased by 3.77 million tons to 292.75 (295.8) million tons, in particular for Brazil – by 2.28 million tons to 5.96 (11.36) million tons and Ukraine – by 1.3 million tons to 2.95 (0.84) million tons, which compensates for the decrease in stocks in Argentina by 0.8 million tons to 5.09 (6.78) million tons.

Corn prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from increased competition with Argentine grain and a drop in demand from Middle Eastern countries caused by the war with Iran (since part of Ukrainian corn was supplied to Iran via Turkey), so we will monitor the results of the sowing campaign in Brazil and the USA and the harvest in Argentina.

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