Ukrainian exporters will have to look for a place to sell over 11 mln tons of corn outside the EU

Ukrainian exporters will have to look for alternative markets for over 11 million tons of corn outside the European Union in the second half of the marketing year, according to Spike Brokers.

Since October, Ukraine has exported 10.7 million tons of corn, which is less than the 11.5 million tons for the same period last season.

In February, the main buyers of Ukrainian corn remained Turkey — 920 thousand tons, Spain — 492 thousand tons, Italy — 365 thousand tons, the Netherlands — 280 thousand tons and Egypt — 236 thousand tons.

At the same time, the total remaining export potential of Ukraine for March-September is estimated at approximately 15 million tons.

According to Spike Brokers, the key market for Ukrainian corn has traditionally been the European Union. In the 2025/26 season, total corn imports to the EU are forecast at 18.8 million tons, which is almost 2 million tons less than a year earlier. As of March 1, EU countries have already imported 11.8 million tons, which leaves about 7 million tons of potential demand until the end of the season.

Currently, the structure of corn imports to the EU looks like this: Ukraine — 37%, the US — 30%, Brazil — 26%. Under favorable conditions, Ukraine’s share may increase to about 40%, but even in this case, demand from the EU is unlikely to exceed 3 million tons by the end of June.

“Under such conditions, Ukrainian exporters will have to look for sales markets for more than 11 million tons of corn outside the EU, which increases the importance of the Mediterranean, Middle East and North African markets in the second half of the marketing year against the background of growing geopolitical instability,” the brokers noted.

Over the past week, corn prices on the CPT Odesa basis decreased from $213 to $210 per ton.

https://ukragroconsult.com