Analysts continue to lower wheat export forecasts for the EU

Consulting company Expana has lowered its forecast for EU soft wheat exports in 2025/26 MY by another 1.2 million tons to 27.6 million tons due to strong competition on the global market, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decrease in the estimate.

Recall that in the February balance, USDA experts lowered the export forecast for the EU from 32.5 to 31.5 million tons compared to 28 million tons in the 2024/25 MY.

Competition from Ukrainian and Russian wheat is somewhat less this year, while pressure from the US and countries in the southern hemisphere has increased, according to Expana.

At the same time, the company’s experts expect that barley exports from the EU in the 2025/26 MY will reach the highest level since the 2015/16 MY due to high demand in the Middle East.

At the same time, given the losses of winter crops after frosts in recent weeks in Poland and the Baltic countries, the production forecasts for all major grain crops in the EU in 2026 have been reduced compared to January estimates, in particular for soft wheat – from 128.6 to 128.3 million tons, barley – from 52.4 to 52.2 million tons, and corn – to 58.3 million tons.

Despite the fact that soft wheat and barley yields will be 6% and 8% lower, respectively, than last year, they will still exceed the 10-year average, Expana notes.

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