USDA raised its forecast for global oilseed production, including soybean harvests in Brazil and Paraguay, but soybean prices responded to the report with growth

In the February world oilseed balance for 2025/26 MY, FAS USDA experts again increased (compared to January estimates) the forecast for world oilseed production by 2.63 million tons to 695.78 million tons (684.9 million tons in 2024/25 MY and 657.4 million tons in 2023/24 MY), in particular soybean production by 2.5 million tons. The forecast for world ending oilseed stocks was increased by 1.23 million tons to 146.3 (142.1) million tons due to increased production.

The forecast for world soybean production in 2025/26 MY has been increased by 2.5 million tons to a record 428.18 million tons (427.15 million tons in 2024/25 MY), in particular for Brazil – by 2 million tons to a record 180 (171.5) million tons and for Paraguay – by 0.5 million tons to 11.5 (10.2) million tons. For Argentina, the forecast has been left unchanged at 48.5 (51.1) million tons.

The forecast for global soybean consumption has been increased by 1.6 million tons to 424.74 (413.5) million tons due to an increase in processing in Brazil by 1 million tons and Paraguay by 0.5 million tons.

The forecast for world ending soybean stocks has been increased by 1.1 million tons to 125.5 (123.66) million tons, mainly due to an increase in stocks in Brazil.

March soybean futures in Chicago rose 1% to $412.5/t after the report was released (8.7% higher than last month) on expectations of increased exports from the US to China. At the same time, the US exported only 23.136 million tons of soybeans from September 1 to February 5, which is 34.4% lower than last year’s pace, so it will be necessary to export about 20 million tons more over the next 7 months of the season against the backdrop of fierce competition from Brazil.

The forecast for global sunflower production was left at 52.06 (52.31) million tons, although we expected an increase in the forecast for Argentina to 6 million tons (5.5 million tons in the January report and 5.1 million tons last season), as local analysts, after threshing 30% of the area, increased their forecasts to 6.2-6.5 million tons against the background of high yields.

In Ukraine, amid delays in sunflower supplies to factories and rising world oil prices, sunflower prices rose to the highest level of the season, UAH 29,500-30,500/t (with delivery to the factory at 50% oil content), which is 9-10% higher than last month.

The forecast for world rapeseed production in the 2025/26 MY was also left unchanged at 95.17 (86) million tons. The main change in the world balance was a decrease in the forecast for rapeseed imports to the EU from 5.7 to 5.5 million tons, as well as an increase in the forecast for imports to China from 4 to 4.4 million tons. Due to the reduction in tariffs on Canadian canola, the forecast for canola exports from Australia was reduced from 5.5 to 5.1 million tons, while for Canada the estimate was increased from 7.2 to 7.6 million tons.

Following the report, March canola futures rose 0.3% yesterday to their highest since November at CAD 668/t or $494/t (+7.6% month-on-month), while May rapeseed futures in Paris fell 0.3% to €487.75/t or $581/t (+4.2% month-on-month), although supported by high oil prices. However, oilseed markets are soon expecting increased supply across all crops and cooling oil demand during the Chinese New Year holiday period, as well as seasonal demand declines in India.

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