EU lowered its soft wheat export forecast for the current season and raised its corn harvest estimate

Last week, the European Commission lowered its soft wheat export forecast for the current season from 31.0 million to 29.5 million tonnes.

European wheat is currently experiencing strong competitive pressure from Argentine grain. Argentina could export record amounts of wheat this season thanks to its largest-ever harvest.

Due to the deteriorating outlook for European wheat exports, the European Commission increased its ending stocks forecast from 11.7 million to 13.0 million tonnes.

At the same time, the European Commission raised its barley export forecast for the current season from 10.1 million to 11.0 million tonnes and lowered its carryover stocks forecast from 6.1 million to 4.2 million tonnes. Exporters took advantage of strong external demand, which pushed barley prices above those of milling wheat.

The European Commission also raised its estimate for EU corn production this season from 57.8 million to 58.2 million tonnes, while leaving its import forecast unchanged at 18.8 million tonnes.

The EU grain production estimate was slightly revised upward, thanks to corn, from 287.2 million to 287.4 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the soft wheat harvest estimate was lowered to 134.2 million tonnes, while the barley harvest estimate remains unchanged at 55.7 million tonnes.

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