USDA experts sharply lowered the forecast of global oilseed production in 2024/25, in particular soybean in the US

In the November WASDE supply and demand report, USDA experts lowered the forecast for world production of oilseed crops in 2024/25 FY immediately by 5.1 million tons to 682.2 million tons (657.85 million tons in 2023/24 FY), in particular soybeans – by 3.52 million tons (due to the reduction of the harvest in the USA), peanuts – by 0.94 million tons, sunflower – by 0.25 million tons, and rapeseed – by 0.2 million tons.

As a result of the decrease in the estimate of the yield of soybeans in the US from 53.1 to 51.7 bushels/acre (3.47 t/ha), the production forecast was reduced by 3.28 to 121.42 million tons, while analysts predicted the yield at the level of 52.8 bushels/acre, and production is 124 million tons.

Compared to the October estimates, the new soybean balance for the 2024/25 FY has undergone the following changes:

• The estimate of initial reserves was increased by 0.05 to 112.42 million tons (101 million tons in FY 2023/24).
• The global production forecast was reduced by 3.52 to 425.4 million tons (394.73 million tons in 2023/24 FY and 378.4 million tons in 2022/23 FY), in particular for the USA – by 3.28 to 121.42 (113.27) million tons and India – by 0.2 to 12.6 million tons. For Brazil, the forecast was left at the level of 169 million tons, and for Argentina – 51 million tons, which will significantly exceed last year’s figures.
• The forecast of world consumption was reduced by 0.44 to 402.28 (384.18) million tons.
• The estimate of world exports was increased by 0.18 to 181.71 (177.04) million tons, primarily for Canada and Brazil, which offsets the reduction in supplies from the USA by 0.68 to 49.67 (46.13) million tons.
• The forecast of world ending stocks was reduced by 2.9 to 131.7 (112.42) million tons, especially for the USA, Brazil and Argentina.

According to the report, November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose sharply, but after the results of the Friday session, they rose only by 0.1% to $373.6/t (+1.2% compared to the data after the release of the October report), as they remain under pressure from heavy rains in Brazil and forecasts of a cut in China’s soybean imports following Trump’s victory.

The forecast of global rapeseed production in 2024/25 was reduced by 0.2 to 87.24 (89.89) million tons, in particular for the EU – by 0.1 to 17.35 (19.98) million tons, while for Canada and Australia left estimates unchanged at 20 and 5.5 million tons, respectively. The estimate of world final reserves was left at the level of 8.05 (10.1) million tons.

After the release of the report, February rapeseed futures on the Paris MATIF rose by 0.7% to €536.5/t or $574.8/t (+7.5% for the month), and canola on the Winnipeg exchange – by 0.8% to 665.1 CAD/t or $478/t (+8.2% for the month).

The forecast of world production of sunflower in 2024/25 MR was reduced by 0.25 to 50.44 (56.03) million tons, in particular for the EU – by 0.07 to 9.43 (10) million tons and Turkey – by 0.175 to 1.375 million tons. The estimates for Argentina – 4 million tons, the Russian Federation – 16 million tons, and Ukraine – 12.5 (15.5) million tons were left unchanged, although according to official data, only 9.7 million tons were collected. The estimate of world sunflower consumption was reduced by 0.1 to 51.2 (56.67) million tons, and final reserves – by 0.06 to 2.28 (3.16) million tons.

In the near future, oilseeds markets will be influenced by data on harvesting canola in Australia and sunflower in Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

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