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UGA improved the crop forecast to 67.5 million tons of grains and oilseeds

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The Ukrainian Grain Association has updated its harvest forecast for the current year, improving it to 67.5 million tons. This is due to the increase of the harvested areas and improvement of the average yield from 3.57 t/ha to 3.64 t/ha. Recall that the previous harvest forecast was 64.5 million tons.

Exports from Ukraine under these conditions in 2022/2023 marketing year may amount to 47.5 mln tonnes, provided that the sea export route is maintained until the end of the season. At the same time, with the ending stocks at the beginning of the season of 26 mln tonnes of grains and oilseeds, in 2022/2023 MY the ending stocks will amount to 19.2 mln tonnes.

The wheat harvest in Ukraine this year amounted to 19.3 mln tonnes. At the same time, the ending stocks of wheat of the last harvest amounted to more than 10 mmt. Wheat exports in 2022/2023 MY may amount to about 13 mmt, and ending stocks at the end of the season will amount to 6.9 mmt.

The estimation of barley harvest also improved and amounts to 5.6 mmt (in 2021 – 10.1 mmt), and the export in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the level of 2 mmt. The corn harvest this season can be expected at the level of 24 mmt (last year – 37.6 mmt), while exports may amount to about 20 mmt, and ending stocks – 7.8 mmt.

The sunflower harvest is expected at the level of almost 10 mmt (in 2021 – 16.9 mmt), and exports at the level of 6 mmt, taking into account ending stocks from last season at the level of 5.8 mmt. The processing of sunflowerseeds for oil may reach 7 mmt (last season – 10 mmt).

The rapeseed harvest is estimated at 3.15 mmt (in 2021 – 2.9 mmt), while exports in 2022/2023 MY is expected to reach 2.8 mmt. Soybean harvest is expected at the level of almost 3.6 mmt (in 2021 – 3.5 mmt), and exports in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the level of 3.5 mmt.

In general, the exports of grains and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the mentioned level, if the Ukrainian Black Sea ports will continue to work for export until the end of the season. The export of grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to the countries that desperately need it. The demand for Ukrainian grain will continue to grow as the world’s population, which recently passed the 8 billion mark, continues to grow.

The preliminary forecast of grain and oilseeds harvest for the next year is estimated at 53.2 mmt, and exports at 39.7 mmt. Everything will depend on the conditions in which Ukrainian farmers will be able to carry out spring sowing, and then harvesting.

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