Importers from Egypt postpone purchases, waiting for their own harvest and the resumption of exports from the Black Sea

Egypt sharply reduced wheat imports in August and will reduce them further in September as wheat prices are rising faster than flour prices, reducing the margins of mills that produce flour for re-export, ASAP Agri experts report on Latifundist.com .

Offer prices for Ukrainian wheat with 11.5% protein delivered in bulk to CIF Egypt increased by $40-45/t to $300-305/t in a month.

As a result, wheat imports in August decreased compared to August last year from 1.29 to 0.68 million tons, which is inferior to the average monthly indicator of 2025/26 MY of 1.26 million tons.

Flour prices are rising much more slowly, so mills have stopped purchasing wheat amid a sharp drop in processing margins.

In addition, many importers expect the resumption of exports from the Black Sea and, as a result, a sharp drop in prices, especially since their own large wheat harvest will be able to satisfy demand until October – November.

However, experts do not expect the Black Sea ports to resume operations by the end of the year, so they believe that bid prices for CIF Egypt will continue to increase.

High freight costs reduce the competitiveness of Ukrainian wheat exported through Danube ports. During August, freight rates for costers from Danube ports to Egypt increased by $32/t to $100/t, while freight from Constanta to Egypt costs only $30/t.

In addition, the queue to enter the Sulin Canal has already accumulated about 100 vessels, and it continues to grow, which critically reduces the availability of vessels.

At the same time, market participants believe that if the Memorandum is concluded, prices will decrease by $15-30/t.

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