EU downgrades wheat crop estimate to new 12-year low

The European Commission on Thursday lowered its estimate of the EU’s main wheat crop to a new 12-year low but raised its forecast for the current EU corn crop, ending a series of six-month downward revisions to the forecast.

On the supply and demand side of the data, the Commission cut its estimate of the EU’s usable soft wheat production in 2024/25 to 112.3 million tons from 112.6 million tons a month earlier.

This is 10% below the previous harvest and the lowest since 2012/13.

The EU harvest was the leanest in France since the 1980s due to repeated heavy rains last year.

The lower crop estimate and a slight increase in the projected use of wheat in livestock feed led the Commission to lower its forecast for soft wheat stocks at the end of 2024/25 to 9.8 million tons from 10.4 million tons a month earlier.

Projected soft wheat exports from the EU remained unchanged at 25.0 million tons, down from 35.3 million tons in 2023/24.

For maize, the Commission raised its forecast for EU production to 59.6 million tons from 58.0 million tons last month, although this is still nearly 3% below last year’s figure.

The EU executive has sharply worsened its forecast for the corn crop in recent months as summer drought and heat waves have wilted the crop in southeastern Europe.

However, summarizing its overall adjustments to cereal production by country, the Commission said the biggest upward revision was for Romania, followed by France.

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