Australia raises grain and oilseed crop forecast as growing conditions improve

Australia’s winter crop production in 2026/27 is forecast at 61 mln tons, according to ABARES. The estimate has been raised by 12% from the June forecast due to better-than-expected growing conditions across most southern cropping regions. The projected crop would be the fourth largest on record and 16% above the 10-year average.

The wheat production forecast has been revised upward from the previous estimate, although the crop is still expected to decline 17% year-on-year to 29.9 mln tons. The decrease largely reflects an 11% reduction in planted area. Nevertheless, production would remain 3% above the 10-year average.

Barley production in 2026/27 is forecast at 16.4 mln tons, down just 3% year-on-year but 30% above the 10-year average. The area planted to barley increased by 6% compared with the previous season.

Canola production is expected to decline by 5% to 7.3 mln tons, despite a 2% increase in planted area. ABARES attributed the decline mainly to lower expected yields in Western Australia. Even so, the projected canola crop would remain 37% above the 10-year average.

Improved crop prospects reflect favorable growing conditions in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales, while conditions remain more challenging in northern New South Wales and Queensland. High prices and uncertainty over fuel and fertilizer availability have not significantly constrained production potential, as growers were able to secure necessary inputs, although often at higher prices.

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