ABARES lifts forecasts for canola, wheat, barley

ABARES has lifted its forecast for Australia’s wheat crop now being harvested to 35.6 million tonnes (Mt), barley production to 15.7Mt, and canola to 7.2Mt.

Released today in ABARES quarterly Australian Crop Report, the wheat estimate is up 1.9Mt from the previous released September 2 to make it Australia’s third-largest wheat crop after 2022-23 on 40.5Mt, and 2021-22 on 36.2Mt.

The barley figure has piled on 1.1Mt to put it in front of the previous record of 14.65Mt set in 2020-21, and the canola figure has risen 782,000t to put it on track to be the second-biggest on record behind 8.44Mt in 2022-23.

ABARES forecasts Australia’s total winter crop now being harvested at 66.3Mt, the second highest on record, despite varied growing conditions.

Winter-crop production in Western Australia is expected to be the second highest on record after a mixed start, with above-average and timely rainfall and a mild spring in most regions contributed to record high average yields.

Seasonal conditions in Queensland and northern New South Wales have been favourable, with harvest results showing strong yield outcomes, and total winter-crop production in Qld is expected to be the second highest on record.

“Below average spring rainfall across southern New South Wales during the critical grain fill windows has impacted yields, weighing on total state production, which is expected to be down 10 percent year on year,” the report said.

“After a poor start to the winter-cropping season, production is forecast to rebound in South Australia and Victoria, following timely winter and spring rainfall and mild spring temperatures.

Total winter crop production in SA is expected to increase by 63pc year on year, while Vic production is expected to be up 17pc.

“National winter-crop production has been revised higher since the September 2025 Australian Crop Report, reflecting timely spring rainfall at critical growth stages and mild spring temperatures in most winter cropping regions.”

The exception is southern NSW and parts of north-eastern SA, where below-average spring rainfall impacted yield potential.

Table 1: September 2 and December 2 estimates for Australia’s 2025-26 wheat hectares and production. * figures yet to be verified. Source: ABARES

Table 2: September 2 and December 2 estimates for Australia’s 2025-26 barley hectares and production. * figures yet to be verified. Source: ABARES

Table 3: September 2 and December 2 estimates for Australia’s 2025-26 canola hectares and production. * figures yet to be verified. Source: ABARES

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