soybean Futures in Chicago fell from the beginning of the week by 2.7% to 312 $/t under pressure capacity rate of harvest and an increase in the forecast of soybean crop in the United States. Prices for soybeans continue to fluctuate because of the uncertainty with exports to China, so last month they dropped to $300/t and up to $320/t, and within a month lost 1.6%.
Traders hold the market in anticipation of lower prices after the publication of the next USDA report, where they hope to see another increase in production and carryover of soybeans in the United States.
According to the Wall Street Journal, which is considered the average value of the estimates of various analytical agencies, the forecast of soybean production in the United States will grow to 128.8 million tons, compared to 127.7 million tonnes in the September report and 119.5 million tonnes last year. In this evaluation soybean yields will increase to 3.59 t/ha against 3,55 t/ha in the previous report, and 3.3 t/ha in 2017.
trade confrontation between the US and China continues. Trump said that he was not going to give in and did impose additional import duties on Chinese goods to the amount of 267 billion $. China continues a policy of refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans and does not agree to make concessions, therefore, filed a lawsuit against U.S. action at WTO.
the Difference in prices between the Brazilian and U.S. soybeans rose to 100 $/t. Chinese importers cost-effective to buy U.S. soybeans with paying 25% tax, but such purchases are constrained politically. China looking for opportunities to reduce the amount of protein in the feed and increasing import of soybean, sunflower and rapeseed meals from other countries.
Brazil has exhausted the possibilities of export of soybeans and according to experts will be able to supply about 5 million tons of beans to new crop, and the total export will amount to approximately 77 million tons of new crop soybeans will not until the end of January, so the question of the purchase of soybeans before the specified period remains open.
the Demand for Ukrainian soy is still low due to low activity of traders, and the workload of the elevators maize and sunflower almost impossible to take soy, which it is not clear who and when will buy. Processors continue to purchase in terms of delivery to the plant and offer prices at the level 10500-10650 UAH/t, while preference is given to soybean with high protein content.
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